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Market Watch: Strong Job Report could trigger a 10-year Bond Melt-up, curve is starting to normalize

Market Watch (Warning): 1/4/2024

Trader Makes Massive bet Treasuries Will Get Slammed After Jobs Report.

Wager targets 10-year yield rise to 4.15% before Friday close.

Decent ADP jobs data Thursday raises bar for December payrolls.

The article indicates the 10-year could melt-up 20 bps to even 4.20%.

This would trigger if the job report comes in hot at over 250,000-300,000 add jobs.

This would move the unemployment rate to 3.6% from the month eariler of 3.7%.

This would signal to the Federal Reserve they will not be able to cut rate and that they might even have to raise rates higher or at least maintain rates for longer at 5.5%.

If the number come in average of 175,000-185,000; the markets will possibly move up due to the Fed is causing job loses and hitting their mandate.

If the number come in lower the market will spike; thinking the Fed will cut rates in March and possibly see 6 rate cuts as the market has priced this in already. Which is just crazt in my opinion since core has not moved down and it is entrenched around 4.0%.

If the 10-Year spikes above the 2-year bond and normalizes. This would be very bad. The 2-year is where the banks borrow from the Fed. They loan at the 10-year. If the 2-year is at 5.0% and the 10-year moves to lets say 6.0% or 8.0%. House loan would move to double digit rates. Depending on the dispersion; we could see house rate back in the mid to high double digits. (12-18% or higher).

So, keep your eye on the markets tomorrow it could be a wild ride into next week.

Date to watch as we move forward -

Sept. 18 - Oct. 9, 2023 - ramp up of attacks on both Israel on Hamas and Turkey on Kurds.

Oct. 7, 2023 - an attack by Hamas on Israel.

Oct. 9, 2023 - a counter attack and start of invasion into Gaza by Israel.

Oct. 31, 2023 - Yeman Houthis enter the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Nov. 3, 2023 - Hezbollah enters the Israel-Gaza conflict.

* Watch Dates: Jan. 6 - Feb. 5, 2024. Major acceleration in Middle East War.

* Watch for an attack on Israel from Hezbollah & an invasion by Turkey into Syria against the Kurds-Medes.

Jan. 15, 2024 - 10 Tevet - A siege on Jerusalem by proxies of Iran (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi's, Iraq, Syria). Another possible date this could happen on is 1/15/2024. The original siege on Jerusalem in 588 BCE was on Jan. 15 based on the information I could find.

Paradigm Timeline Link - This is a new link updated 1/1/2024


God bless.

Time is short.

Repent and get right with Jesus.

Jesus is the only open door to the creator.

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